What will the majors changes be after the AI bubble pops?

I personally would exclude OpenAI from my list of likely to endure. OpenAI partners are largely switching to Anthropic, their models and tools are generally less well regarded. The only time I had someone advocate for them it was due to some scenario where it was much cheaper.

Problem is that based on what I've read. Altman has way overextended his company. The financial obligations outpace their revenue and likely revenue way too much.

Anthropic has some risk since Microsoft, Google, and Apple insourcing would be a big problem for them.

Well yes, but for example, when someone activated voice interaction with their phone, Google or Apple decide what AI solution is used, and Google already decided to roll their own. When most companies go into AI, just expanding their existing relationship with Microsoft is what their business leaders like. Generally the established companies have preserved the customer engagement even when they resell newcomers.

An example of what you ponder would be like Sears, kmart, Amazon. The thing was that Amazon was greatly valued going direct. People loved the prices and shipping speed. Imagine if instead Amazon decided to partner with Sears and K mart and those companies largely handled the customer engagement with Amazon fulfillment on the backend. Amazon would have been much more exposed to those companies bringing it in house. This latter situation more closely resembles OpenAI and Anthropic right now, at least for the big businesses likely to pay enough after the price hikes.

I think the AI bubble will pop when another part of the economy needs capital, sucking up the capital going to AI.

AI burning money for market share isn't new to Wall Street, that's been tech for the past generation. The issue is going to be liquidity to not test these valuations. Once they are tested, they are going to collapse.

The AI bubble will pop the same way the dotcom bubble popped. A lot of money lost and the hype will die down, but the technology will remain and reach a homeostasis at the level where it's actually a helpful tool.

When the dotcom bubble popped the internet didn't disappear, it just became what it was supposed to be. When the AI bubble pops the technology will still be there for use cases where it's actually appropriate and useful.

One change for me is celebrating on the anniversary of an AI company shutting down.

Big tech will keep their AI. Like others here have said, AI companies without another income stream will go belly up.

Some data centers will be sold and repurposed. Others will sell off their hardware to the consumer market.

Lower temperatures and less noise near the former data centers.

I don't see property values going back to where they were unless a data center is dismantled and the water table recovers.

Exactly. The AI bubble popping will not "un-invent" AI technology. The technology exists and can be a useful tool for the right use cases, just like the internet still existed after the dotcom bubble popped.

LLMs will still exist and will still be trained and used. What won't exist are AI only companies.

Probably:
- GenAI continues to be used for marketing, and anything else where form matters more than substance
- anything where meaning is really critical might still use it, but will require solid oversight/governance. Software, research, medicine, teaching, etc.

Maybe:
- AI bubble bursts, with ripple effects into the broader economy, particularly in the US. This will be a huge problem if big banks are heavily leveraged for their AI investments (not sure this is the case, but it seems likely). If this happens, the collapse will be much worse than the GFC, perhaps worse than the great depression.
- Political spillover.. No idea what this will look like, but it's a big trigger...